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Today's game plan

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Levels around price

Likely plays

When (UK time)

Rules that won (backtest, 36 sessions)

  1. Wait for 14:30
  2. Skip the first sweep
  3. Enter on a 30-sec close back across the level
  4. Stop 2 pts past the sweep
  5. Once +1R, trail 1.5R. No fixed target

Full notes: bull case, bear case, what to watch
Bull case
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Bear case
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Wrong if
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Watch
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All key levels
LevelPriceTypeNote
How the plays are made
Levels
Today's key levels plus the live (unswept) liquidity channels from your indicator on 10 min, 1 hour and 4 hour. Buy-side sits above old highs and sell-side below old lows. These are where stop runs happen.
Plays
The nearest live sell-side level below price (long play) and buy-side level above (short play). The play is the sweep and reclaim: price runs through the level, then a 30-second candle closes back. Targets are VWAP and then the liquidity on the other side.
No reclaim
If price goes through and stays through, don't fade it. That is often the day's big move starting, and the next level beyond becomes the magnet.
Evidence
From "Finding the winning trades" below: 36 sessions of your channels rebuilt on 5-minute bars, 26 on 3-minute and 11 on 1-minute, checked against shuffled prices. It's a small edge (about +0.3R a trade), not a sure thing.
Chart
Red zones are buy-side liquidity, green sell-side. Solid means untouched, faint means already swept. Lines: green uptrend, red downtrend, dashed just broken. EMA 20/50 show the short and medium trend. Times are UK.

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RSI — MACD hist — ATR — EMA 20 — EMA 50 —

Potential patterns

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Ideas tested with no edge so far

Finding the winning trades, 14:00–16:00 UK

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Fade the later sweeps after 14:30. Let winners run.

The winner finder

  1. Wait for 14:30. Earlier fades lost 0.6–1.1R a trade.
  2. Skip the first sweep. It usually starts the move.
  3. Enter on the reclaim: a 30-sec close back across the swept level within 3 min.
  4. Stop 2 pts past the sweep (at least 8). That distance is 1R.
  5. No fixed target. Once +1R, trail the stop 1.5R behind. Out after 2 h.

Live record (30-second data)

Grey = sessions used to build the rules. Coloured = new sessions, the real test. Running total in R.

Every trade
DaySweepTradeEntryRiskExitPointsR

Show the evidence

When the day's best move started

Winner traits

Average R per fade with the trait vs without (1/3/5-min). Top three held everywhere.

Trait at entry1-min3-min5-min

Exits compared

Average R per trade, then first half / second half. Only the 1.5R trail was positive in all six halves.

Exit1-min3-min5-min

Real vs luck

Black = real prices. Grey = 8 shuffled copies each.

Biggest winners

DayEntry (UK)TradeRiskBankedPrice ran

Running total by sample (points)

Data from your TradingView chart (). Technical analysis only, not financial advice.